Authored by Scott Atlas, M.D., op-ed via The Hill,

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.

In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.

Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of COVID-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For those under 18 years of age, hospitalization from the virus is 0.01 percent per 100,000 people; for those 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization is 0.1 percent per 100,000. Even for people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded “age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.” Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.

We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases — to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy. That has been falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat. Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

The overwhelming evidence all over the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group — older people and others with underlying conditions — is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19. Knowing that, it is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.

The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy like some outlined in the first place:

• Strictly protect the known vulnerable,
• self-isolate the mildly sick, and
• open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions.

This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation. Let’s stop under-emphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter.

*  *  *

Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

Source: The Data Is In… Stop The Panic & End The Total Isolation

https://youtu.be/91CdQcKkCJU

https://youtu.be/PcLxXZo55aU

Remember what this felt like? People enjoy the warm spring weather at Hornstull in Stockholm on April 21, 2020, during the new coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic.

KEY POINTS

• Unlike its neighbors, Sweden did not impose a lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak.
• The strategy — aimed at building a broad-base of immunity while protecting at-risk groups like the elderly — has proved controversial.
• But Sweden’s chief epidemiologist has said “herd immunity” could be reached in Stockholm within weeks.

Sweden isn’t on a national lockdown amid coronavirus—Here’s why

(See video on CNBC website)

Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.

But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Some reinfections, or reactivations, of the coronavirus have been reported.

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”

“Unfortunately the mortality rate is high due to the introduction (of the virus) in elderly care homes and we are investigating the cause of that,” he said.

VIDEO04:31

Economist: Georgia’s coronavirus situation is comparable to Sweden’s

The major part of Sweden’s 15,322 confirmed cases are in Stockholm and its surrounding areas, with very small incidences of the virus in the rest of Sweden — a country of around 10 million that has a low population density outside its urban hubs.

The number of cases in Sweden is almost double that in neighboring Denmark (it has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths) and Finland (with just over 4,000 cases and 141 deaths) that imposed strict lockdown measures. Since their populations are each about 5 million — half of Sweden’s — the rates are about the same, although the comparison could be skewed by testing numbers in each country. Still, Sweden’s 1,937 death toll is far higher than its neighbors.

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What is a pandemic?

Sweden originally tested only people who came into a hospital but is now testing more key workers and those in care homes. Tegnell said the decision to test more groups of people was a reason for the number of confirmed cases not declining as quickly as it could have.

Sweden is testing around 20,000 people a week and hopes to increase that to 100,000 in a few weeks’ time, Tegnell said.

Elderly paying the price?

While the number of new cases appears to be declining, achieving herd immunity has proved controversial. Tacitly allowing the virus to spread (albeit having put measures in place to slow its spread) puts the elderly and people with existing health conditions at a greater risk of becoming seriously ill and, potentially, dying.

Tegnell conceded that the situation in Sweden’s care homes, which have seen the majority of deaths from the coronavirus, is worrying.

“The death toll is very closely related to elderly care homes. More than half of the people that have died have lived in elderly care homes.” Tegnell said, adding that he and the Public Health Agency are “still very concerned about the elderly.”

“It’s the group we said we needed to protect,” he said, adding that the agency was working with homes to see what improvements could be made to lower risk factors.

Nonetheless, Tegnell said he was “fairly confident” in the strategy his agency had pursued but said it would be too early for the Swedish government to lift restrictions imposed to delay the spread of the virus. “A big part of the country has not been affected at all yet.”

″(But) if you look at the exit strategies that now many countries have opted for, they look very much like Sweden’s (strategy and restrictions),” he said.

People enjoy themselves at an outdoor restaurant, amid the corona virus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in central Stockholm, Sweden, on April 20, 2020.

ANDERS WIKLUND

Tegnell said that soon, several studies will be published to show the extent of infection and recovery (and hopefully) immunity to the virus. Data showed the peak of infections had already been reached in Stockholm.

Sweden’s response to the pandemic has been guided by Tegnell and the Public Health Agency. While other countries have gone into lockdown at the advice of their scientific advisors, Sweden was conspicuous in its different approach, largely trusting the public to adopt voluntary measures to delay the spread of the virus.

The Public Health Agency raised eyebrows Wednesday when it pulled a report from its website due to an error, but Anders Tegnell told CNBC Thursday that the issue was not related to the herd immunity claims. He said the report would be amended and re-published Thursday and that the error had to do with the modeling of cases.

Sweden’s government has advocated working from home if at all possible and to avoid nonessential travel and social contact with the elderly. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have been offering seated table service only, and gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned. Yet schools for under 16-year-olds have remained open and life has generally carried on as before, just at a quieter pace.

Tegnell said the country was conducting more widespread testing and sampling to gauge the extent of the outbreak.

“We are right now going out and doing countrywide tests on immunity to see what big differences we have in different parts of Sweden,” Tegnell said. “It’s a little bit of a mystery why nothing has really happened in other parts of Sweden.”

“The virus keeps on surprising us when it comes to this,” he said, noting that the most southern region of the country, which borders Denmark, had seen relatively few cases given its border location and the constant movement of people between the countries, which was allowed to continue for the most part despite the virus.

VIDEO05:51

Couple quarantined on cruise ship for their honeymoon

Clarification: This report has been updated to more accurately describe how patients are testing positive for the virus after recovery.